FY2020 Budget

145 5-Year Long-Range Forecast Analysis General Fund actual 2017 actual 2018 estimated 2019 forecast 2020 forecast 2021 forecast 2022 forecast 2023 forecast 2024 Total General Fund Revenues 35,372,372 $ 32,578,375 $ 32,477,280 $ 35,320,000 $ 34,257,692 $ 35,342,437 $ 36,298,977 $ 37,311,228 $ Total Revenues without Transfers 30,265,152 $ 31,362,752 $ 32,477,280 $ 33,125,000 $ 34,257,692 $ 35,342,437 $ 36,298,977 $ 37,311,228 $ Overall Revenue Growth (not including interfund transfers) 5.9% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Revenue Per Capita Less Transfers 1,237.53 $ 1,242.48 $ 1,249.17 $ 1,236.98 $ 1,242.03 $ 1,220.35 $ 1,216.86 $ 1,214.36 $ Total General Fund Expenditures 34,492,664 $ 33,165,703 $ 34,613,810 $ 35,320,000 $ 34,665,738 $ 34,952,199 $ 35,749,735 $ 36,453,493 $ Total Expenditures without Transfers 25,499,593 $ 26,854,384 $ 28,051,010 $ 34,170,000 $ 32,715,738 $ 33,752,199 $ 34,549,735 $ 35,253,493 $ Overall Expenditure Growth (not including interfund transfers) 10% 5% 4% 22% - 4% 3% 2% 2% Expenditures Per Capita Less Transfers 1,042.67 $ 1,063.88 $ 1,078.93 $ 1,276.00 $ 1,186.13 $ 1,165.44 $ 1,158.22 $ 1,147.39 $ Debt Outlay Analysis Maximum debt outlay annually within Policy 1 3,811,836 $ 4,072,005 $ 4,207,652 $ 5,125,500 $ 4,907,361 $ 5,062,830 $ 5,182,460 $ 5,288,024 $ Retiring Debt from previous year (104,620) $ (624,660) $ 56,966 $ 51,874 $ 187,240 $ 294,300 $ 91,900 $ 45,700 $ Existing Long-term Debt 1,562,720 $ 2,187,380 $ 2,130,414 $ 2,078,540 $ 1,891,300 $ 1,597,000 $ 1,505,100 $ 1,459,400 $ New CIP Debt Service - $ - $ - $ 1,413,660 $ 1,252,930 $ 1,220,740 $ 1,188,550 $ 1,156,360 $ Total Long-term Debt Service (including New Debt) 1,562,720 $ 2,187,380 $ 2,130,414 $ 3,492,200 $ 3,144,230 $ 2,817,740 $ 2,693,650 $ 2,615,760 $ 6% 8% 8% 10% 10% 8% 8% 7% Tax Rate Analysis Current and Projected Tax Rate 0.3900 0.3900 0.3900 0.3900 0.3900 0.3900 0.3900 0.3900 Tax Base 4,532,717,369 $ 4,587,660,798 $ 4,792,000,000 $ 4,915,000,000 $ 5,180,410,000 $ 5,335,822,300 $ 5,495,896,969 $ 5,660,773,878 $ Tax Base Growth 14% 1% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 3% Population 24,456 25,242 25,999 26,779 27,582 28,961 29,830 30,725 Per Penny 452,365 $ 457,849 $ 478,242 $ 490,517 $ 517,005 $ 532,515 $ 548,491 $ 564,945 $ Expenditures Per Capita 1,410.40 $ 1,313.91 $ 1,331.35 $ 1,318.94 $ 1,256.82 $ 1,206.87 $ 1,198.45 $ 1,186.44 $ Debt Service Ratio Performance Indicator

Fund Balance Analysis Consolidated (General Fund, MSD, Reserves) Beginning Total Fund Balance 25,667,275 $ 27,717,701 $ 30,079,849 $ 27,569,119 $ 27,569,119 $ 27,161,073 $ 27,551,311 $ 28,100,553 $ Restatements 2,514,188 $ Net Change in Fund Balance 2,050,426 $ (152,040) $ (2,510,730) $ - $ (408,046) $ 390,238 $ 549,242 $ 857,735 $ Ending Total Fund Balance 27,717,701 $ 30,079,849 $ 27,569,119 $ 27,569,119 $ 27,161,073 $ 27,551,311 $ 28,100,553 $ 28,958,288 $ non-spendable items: 12,463,052 $ 19,846,104 $ 17,548,688 $ 17,368,544.97 $ 17,111,475.99 $ 17,357,325.93 $ 17,703,348.39 $ 18,243,721.44 $ Unassigned Fund Balance 3 15,254,649 $ 10,233,745 $ 10,020,431 $ 10,200,574 $ 10,049,597 $ 10,193,985 $ 10,397,205 $ 10,714,567 $ 59.3% 38.1% 35.1% 30.8% 30.5% 30.0% 29.9% 30.2% Fund Balance High Policy 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% Fund Balance Low Policy 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% Unassigned Fund Balance as % of Expenditures

notes: CAFR is source data. MSD & CRF are now required to be consolidated in General Fund. Unassigned Fund Balance assumptions are long projections, in that estimates must span over a two year period . Should any one varible change it can radically alter the assumptions overall. Estimates are procduced to reasonibly understand potential impacts of budgetary decisions. Forecst expenditures in outlying years include assumptions for inflation, known programmed replacement items and other planned long-range anticipated cost. Forecast revenues in outlying years include growth varied growth assumptions depending on the type of revenue, trends and/or a qualitative basis.